Avatars in Games Help To Track Simulated Epidemics and Zoonoses

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Analyzing disease outbreaks virtually—for example, by using popular gaming sites such as World of Warcraft(WOW) and Whyville—proves their value for estimating the dynamics of epidemics and for training specialists who might someday need to deal with real, not simulated, infectious diseases outbreaks. "Virtual outbreaks really do have some critical parallels with real-world outbreaks," says Nina Fefferman, an epidemiologist at Rutgers University in New Brunswick, N.J., who spoke during the American Association for the Advancement of Science annual meeting, held in San Diego last March.

Infectious disease specialists began using computational modeling to track outbreaks years ago. For example, the Epidemiological Simulation System (EpiSims) (http://ndssl.vbi.vt-.edu/episims.php) depends on a computer program to simulate smallpox outbreaks, and how vaccine campaigns and quarantines could help to curtail the spread of that virus. One big problem with EpiSims and others like it is that they are programmed to follow normal behaviors of individuals, Fefferman says. "EpiSims wasn't created to account for unusual behavior." Although that model provides "very important insights," it falls short in dealing with "unpredictability" and other situations for which there are "no good algorithms."

However, some computer games are designed to let individuals react to such situations, according to Yasmin Kafai of the University of Pennsylvania Graduate School of Education in Philadelphia. "When we participate in a virtual epidemic outbreak, we experience . . . through our avatars what it's like to get infected," she says. "The opportunity to become . . . an observer and a participant of how an epidemic plays out on multiple levels, the community, social interactions, and on your own decisions provides an unprecedented learning opportunity."

Consider this scenario. Since 2001, the virtual community of Whyville experienced periodic outbreaks of Why- Pox, a skin rash affecting participant avatars. During 2005, participants learned that isolating themselves from others who are infected avoids illness. During another outbreak, players could sell, trade, or donate a vaccine, whose use resonated more with girls, who sought preventive actions, than with boys.

Another game, WOW, becomes progressively more challenging, and players advance as their gaming skills improve. WOW programmers added an infectious disease outbreak called Corrupted Blood to an advanced level. Some players abandoned the disease level, moving their avatars back to less-complicated levels. However, in some cases, moving infected avatars to lower levels also spread the disease. Moreover, infected avatar pets also began spreading the disease throughout the levels, simulating a zoonosis.

In the cyber-world, epidemics spark panic, curiosity, altruism, and even mingling of infected and uninfected avatars, creating more chaos. "People are not always rational in their decision-making and behaviors," Kafai says. "It's perhaps not just the unpredictability that needs to be factored into models but also the ingenuity of unexpected behaviors that players display when online."

"As not all epidemics are useful for epidemiology, not all epidemiological questions can or should be explored using virtual worlds," Fefferman cautions. "I'm fond of the analogy of drug trials in mice: no one believes that a drug trial in a rodent will provide all the answers about the mechanisms and pathways and effects that a compound will cause in a human, but it's a very good model system."

Brian Hoyle
Brian Hoyle ( This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it ) owns and runs Square Rainbow Ltd., a science writing and editing company.